Top trade negotiators from Canada and the United States have been engaged in intensive talks for three consecutive days in Washington, D.C., as they aim to finalize a trade agreement before new American tariffs are set to take effect on Saturday. These negotiations are crucial to avert the imposition of 50 percent import taxes that US President Donald Trump has threatened against approximately $20 billion worth of Canadian goods.

The tariffs were temporarily suspended earlier this week, and many experts express optimism regarding a last-minute resolution. "All indications point to the fact that a deal is imminent before the expiry of the current extension. Or, at most, there might be another extension with negotiations going into next week," said Vina Nadjibulla, co-founder and CEO of the Centre for Strategic Statecraft, a nonpartisan policy think tank in Canada.

However, Nadjibulla cautioned that even if an agreement is reached, it will not signify the complete removal of all US tariffs on Canadian products. Instead, a deal could represent a de-escalation in the tense trade relations that have characterized the past 18 months. The current trade friction began in 2025 when Trump, early in his second term, implemented tariffs on key Canadian imports, leading Ottawa to respond with its own retaliatory measures.

President Trump has warned that the new 50 percent tariff will be enacted at 12:01 AM Eastern time (04:01 GMT) on Saturday if an agreement is not reached. This deadline has already been extended from Wednesday. Canadian Minister responsible for trade with the US, Dominic LeBlanc, met with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer for over three hours on Thursday. LeBlanc indicated that both sides were "very close" to a deal but acknowledged that further work remained.

Even if a breakthrough occurs, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney might face challenges in garnering support for the agreement. The country's 10 provincial premiers and three territorial leaders hold significant influence, and the tariffs affect each region differently. A poll conducted by Leger Opinion revealed that 56 percent of Canadians do not want Carney's government to compromise on the trade dispute.

This latest round of tariff threats, introduced in late July, stems from Trump's assertion of "discriminatory treatment of American products" by Canada. The ongoing trade disputes have impacted various sectors, creating uncertainty for businesses on both sides of the border. The complexity of the negotiations involves addressing long-standing issues related to market access, agricultural products, and intellectual property rights.

Analysts suggest that a successful resolution would likely involve concessions from both nations, aiming to create a more stable and predictable trade environment. The ultimate success of any deal will depend on its ability to satisfy the economic and political interests of both the US and Canada, while also navigating the protectionist stance often adopted by the Trump administration.

Discussions are expected to continue intensely until the looming deadline, with both sides expressing a desire to avoid further escalation. The outcome of these negotiations will have significant implications for bilateral trade and economic relations between the two North American neighbors.