All eyes are on Downing Street as the Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, is widely expected to announce his plan to leave office, potentially as soon as this morning. This marks the third time in four years that a prime minister is reportedly on the brink of stepping down, not due to electoral defeat, but due to a loss of confidence within their own party.

This potential departure comes less than two years after Starmer secured a general election victory. His premiership has been described as "deflating for months" by many within the Labour Party, leading to mounting internal pressure for a change in leadership.

The catalyst for the current situation appears to be the significant by-election victory of Andy Burnham last week. Burnham's win, in a region where he is highly popular, has been seen by many Labour MPs as a stronger electoral prospect than Starmer, particularly in light of the growing popularity of Reform UK.

For months, Sir Keir Starmer had reportedly made it clear he would contest any leadership challenge and had taken steps to consolidate his position. This included blocking Andy Burnham's initial attempt to contest a Westminster seat earlier this year. Starmer had also publicly stated that Burnham's priority, if he won the Makerfield by-election, should be the Greater Manchester mayoralty, and had offered Burnham a cabinet position.

However, Burnham's substantial victory in the by-election appears to have "uncorked the bottle of Labour Party dissent" that had been contained during the campaign. His success, demonstrating an ability to defeat Reform UK candidates, has led many Labour MPs to view him as a more viable leader capable of navigating the current political landscape.

The situation echoes previous leadership changes within the Conservative Party. Four years ago, Boris Johnson resigned despite a significant majority, ultimately succumbing to pressure from his own MPs. Three months later, Liz Truss also stepped down after losing the support of her party.

Burnham is scheduled to be sworn in as a Member of Parliament on Monday afternoon. His victory has amplified concerns among Labour MPs about Reform UK's electoral success and its potential impact on future general elections.

The coming hours are expected to reveal whether Sir Keir Starmer will indeed announce his resignation, and what the future leadership of the Labour Party will hold.