The United Kingdom has already endured two significant heatwaves this summer, shattering long-standing temperature records and prompting concerns about future extreme weather events. This pattern, with two such occurrences so early in the season, has not been seen since 1911.

The UK's weather has been highly variable since May. A 'heat dome' of high pressure brought dry, sunny, and very warm conditions, culminating in a new May record of 35.1C in Kew Gardens, London. This was followed by a stark contrast, with low pressure from the Atlantic bringing a wet and cool start to June, delivering the entire month's average rainfall in the first half.

However, weather patterns shifted dramatically again, leading to another intense heatwave. This most recent event broke the all-time June temperature record. For the second time since their inception in 2021, the Met Office issued a red extreme heat warning, covering parts of south-east Wales and southern England, leading to school closures and transport disruptions.

Looking ahead, forecasters indicate a higher probability of more heatwaves and heat-related impacts throughout the rest of the summer, which extends to the end of August. Seasonal outlooks from MeteoGroup, which provides data for BBC Weather, suggested an increased chance of hotter weather in June, and these predictions have proven accurate. Above-average temperatures are anticipated for both July and August, with "significant bursts" of heat expected not only in the UK but also across Europe.

According to the Met Office, the likelihood of experiencing a hotter summer is now twice as high compared to the 1991-2020 period, a trend consistent with a warming climate. This increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves are linked to human-induced climate change, which is raising the baseline global temperature. Scientists have noted an accelerating likelihood of extreme temperatures in the UK.

The UK first recorded a temperature above 40C in July 2022, when Coningsby, Lincolnshire, registered a high of 40.3C. Projections from the Met Office suggest that if global warming continues at its current pace, temperatures in the mid-forties could become a serious possibility for the UK by 2050.

An analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA) indicated that the extreme heat experienced across Western Europe in June was made more likely by climate change. These findings underscore the growing scientific consensus on the role of global warming in exacerbating extreme weather events.

As the summer progresses, the focus will remain on monitoring temperature trends and understanding the preparedness measures needed to cope with potentially more frequent and intense heatwaves.