Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz saw a near tripling during the 60-day period the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran was active, according to an analysis of ship tracking data. Some 374 million barrels of oil transited the Gulf during this window, averaging about 6.1 million barrels per day, as reported by trade intelligence firm Kpler.

This significant increase in oil shipments occurred while the diplomatic agreement was in place, which was intended as a step toward a permanent end to the ongoing conflict. However, the volumes remained substantially lower than pre-war levels, highlighting the persistent challenges to global energy supply chains.

Prior to the MoU's activation on June 17, the average daily oil export volume via the Gulf stood at 2.3 million barrels per day. Kpler data indicates that the peak flow during the MoU period reached approximately 40 percent of the roughly 15 million barrels that transited the Strait of Hormuz daily in 2025.

The expiration of the MoU on Monday, August 19, came as attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continue to pose a threat. The agreement, primarily facilitated by Pakistan, expired without a comprehensive peace deal being finalized amid stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

More than half of the boosted oil shipments occurred within the first three weeks of the MoU. "By the end the flow was thinner, darker and re-accumulating behind the chokepoint," noted Emmanuel Belostrino, head of Global Crude and Geopolitical Market Data at Kpler, suggesting a potential slowdown or rerouting of traffic as the agreement neared its conclusion.

The continued insecurity in the region was underscored by recent attacks on commercial vessels. Five commercial ships have been targeted in the strait within the past week, according to the UKMTO Operations Centre. One cargo ship, the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity, was struck by an unknown projectile off Oman on Tuesday, resulting in the death of one seafarer.

The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (INTERCARGO) identified the deceased as a civilian mariner, emphasizing that "seafarers are civilians and must never become targets or collateral victims of geopolitical conflicts." This incident marks the first confirmed death of a seafarer in such an attack since July, with at least 18 seafarers having been killed in regional attacks on commercial vessels since the conflict began.

No entity has yet claimed responsibility for the latest attack. The expiration of the US-Iran MoU leaves the future of maritime security and oil flow stability in the critical Strait of Hormuz uncertain, with ongoing geopolitical tensions and sporadic attacks continuing to impact global trade routes.